RACE COMMENT

ANALYSIS: Even contest where plenty looks to hinge on the speed map. REPELLING (4) is a known fast beginner and will likely look to cross to the fence, but there is the chance he will take cover over 2240m if he gets there. This might mean Ryan Sanderson and IDEAL BANDIT (1) hunt up to try hold the lead in the fear of being buried too far back. While it’s a little unclear where he ends up in running, I think THESTATESMAN (2) is drawn well enough and in good enough form to win a race like this. He sprinted nicely to finish second to Dynamitedan last weekend and is just favoured over GOOD TOBE LOCKSLEY (9), who has been super since joining the Adam Kelly yard. He won from the one-one last start and is drawn nicely off the back row in a race where the speed should be genuine. IDEAL BANDIT (1) scored from this draw at Melton on May 9 and must be regarded as a strong hope, while MY UNCLE STAN (3) produced his best run of the campaign when a fast-finishing third to GOOD TOBE LOCKSLEY (9) on June 13. Others can win, including the in-form pair PERUN (5) and CLYMENUS (6).